Forvis Mazars: Autumn Budget 2025 Summary

This morning the Forvis Mazars office in Poole delivered their update and analysis, following yesterday’s budget announcement, to a captive audience this morning. The event covered all changes affecting businesses, individuals, and the wider UK economy.
 
After weeks of leaks, tweaks and an OBR report that jumped the gun, Rachel Reeves has delivered her Autumn Budget for 2025. There were no surprises to spook markets, but the Chancellor has opted for stability overgrowth, sticking firmly to fiscal rules.
 
Economic summary
The OBR didn’t downgrade growth as aggressively as feared ahead of the Budget, meaning the much-lamented black hole didn’t need to be closed to the same degree, but the Chancellor still chose caution over ambition.
 
This budget is not a stimulative one; growth has been sacrificed on the altars of stability and politics. The upside? We will likely avoid another black-hole-closing budget.
 
Investors can take comfort: the Chancellor’s choices have not thrown UK government bonds or sterling into disarray. By opting for tax-heavy, progressive measures while sparing low earners, Rachel Reeves has prioritised shoring up the government’s coffers and keeping Labour’s backbenchers onside. Growth allowances exist, but they are modest and targeted rather than transformative.
 
Taxation has been levied piecemeal to raise incremental revenue and build fiscal headroom. Reeves avoided broad-based income tax hikes on “working people,” but few will feel better off. Optics may have been achieved, but substance for growth is lacking.
Stability was the overriding goal. Reeves avoided borrowing, and markets responded calmly—bond yields have broadly remained steady. Keeping borrowing costs under control was central to avoiding another attempt at “filling the black hole left by the previous government.” Inflation control also played a role; a major borrow-and-spend event would have raised price concerns, and Reeves wisely sidestepped that risk.
 
Where optics fall short is in the growth narrative. Historically, heavy borrowing was offset by robust growth, reducing debt-to-GDP ratios—true after both world wars and even in the 1970s. That dynamic is absent today. As the OBR acknowledges, and to Reeves’ likely frustration, the UK faces a low-productivity era with no sign of reverting to pre-pandemic norms. This budget does little to change that trajectory. 
 
Tax Updates
For a full list of the Autumn 2025 tax changes, including the key takeaways, please visit our website.